Commodity Compass

    Weekly Update: May 26th, 2025 Trading Portfolio : (It is a link to Google Sheets) Hey all - happy MDW. Our gold trade from last week has paid off big time so far and some great trade opps have developed for us that I have on watch around Oil and Platinum. Nothing in this blog, except graph images, has been generated by AI - all thoughts and analyses are my own (not financial advice). General Major News/Economic Developments US Tariff policy escalations with the EU and Apple products Moderating US inflation, weaker retail sales, and slowing consumer spending are putting pressure on the Fed's rate plans. Metals Developments/News Gold The move over the last week has paid off brilliantly. We are up 109 points from entry (a gain of $10,940 per /GC contract!), and nearing our supply zone target of 3385.5. If we had multiple contracts, I'd be more than happy to peel some off and lock in some profits here, but let us hold for our target. Strength is continuing, but keep an eye on ...

   Weekly Update: May 19th, 2025 Trading Portfolio : (It is a link to Google Sheets) Hey everyone. Some good bits of information this week, especially around gold, silver, and some geopolitical tensions around the oil markets. Put on a gold trade so far with some potential opportunities lining up in oil.  Nothing in this blog, except graph images, has been generated by AI - all thoughts and analyses are my own (not financial advice). General Major News/Economic Developments US-Iran in talks around nuclear agreement but nothing has been confirmed yet Moody's recent reports of downgrading the US from AAA to AA Metals Developments/News Gold Technically, gold did something I really like for the bullish story. We broke a key level, 3200, and saw a strong jerk reaction to the upside, followed by a small fall again which bottomed HIGHER than the previous low. Along with the macro story (read on), I like the long thesis here. I am initiating a 1 contract position in Gold futures ...

  Weekly Update: May 12th, 2025 Trading Portfolio : (It is a link to Google Sheets) Hi all! Super excited to be back doing the posts and providing my market commentary.  We are starting off with a fresh portfolio, a completely new market environment, and I think we'll see some great ideas and trades form. My focus will be around metals, energy, and agriculture in that order of priority with some index trades mixed in where appropriate. Nothing in this blog has been generated by AI - all thoughts and analyses are my own (not financial advice). General Major News/Economic Developments Indices find new highs this week following the US-China agreement to cut tariffs OPEC+ decision to continue boosting production, Saudi trade volumes remain high Metals Developments/News Gold Gold is sitting on a confluence of signals. 1st, we have the 3200 key level that was established with the rip earlier this month, 2nd, we have our 200 day moving average (green) ready to support price on the wa...

Weekly Update: April 17th, 2023 Trading Portfolio : (It is a link to Google Sheets) General Major News/Economic Developments U.S., Allies Weigh How to Reduce Economic Ties With China Saudi Arabia, U.A.E. Scoop Up Russian Oil Products at Steep Discounts Economists Turn More Pessimistic on Inflation Metals Developments/News Gold Gold is performing price discovery on a day-by-day basis. It is making both higher highs and lower lows. While this does not provide a clear directional bias, the risk/reward for a gold long is phenomenal here, especially considering the 2000 round level support. I picked up one contract long @ 2007.5. My stop loss is a daily close below 2000 supported by high volume, and my target to the upside is the blue trendline (new high). China (a large holder and consumer of gold) has a wavering economic outlook. Find current Citibank expectations outlined in this graph: Shanghai Gold Exchange withdrawals can be tracked here: Chinese gold ETF holdings can be tracked here ...

Weekly Update: April 10th, 2023 Trading Portfolio : (It is a link to Google Sheets) General Major News/Economic Developments The USA is experiencing record spending on construction and manufacturing as some business elect to bring more things on shore. Japan will maintain monetary easing. March job reports show that hiring is slowly cooling down and stabilizing. Metals Developments/News China is the world's largest steel producer, but it still imports a significant amount of steel from other countries. In 2021, China imported over 40 million tonnes of steel, primarily from Japan, South Korea, and Russia. So what does China do with all this imported steel? Firstly, it is important to note that China's demand for steel is constantly increasing due to the country's ongoing construction boom, infrastructure development, and growing manufacturing sector. Therefore, a significant portion of the imported steel is used to meet this increasing demand. In addition to meeting domestic...