Commodity Compass

Weekly Update: April 17th, 2023 Trading Portfolio : (It is a link to Google Sheets) General Major News/Economic Developments U.S., Allies Weigh How to Reduce Economic Ties With China Saudi Arabia, U.A.E. Scoop Up Russian Oil Products at Steep Discounts Economists Turn More Pessimistic on Inflation Metals Developments/News Gold Gold is performing price discovery on a day-by-day basis. It is making both higher highs and lower lows. While this does not provide a clear directional bias, the risk/reward for a gold long is phenomenal here, especially considering the 2000 round level support. I picked up one contract long @ 2007.5. My stop loss is a daily close below 2000 supported by high volume, and my target to the upside is the blue trendline (new high). China (a large holder and consumer of gold) has a wavering economic outlook. Find current Citibank expectations outlined in this graph: Shanghai Gold Exchange withdrawals can be tracked here: Chinese gold ETF holdings can be tracked here ...

Weekly Update: April 10th, 2023 Trading Portfolio : (It is a link to Google Sheets) General Major News/Economic Developments The USA is experiencing record spending on construction and manufacturing as some business elect to bring more things on shore. Japan will maintain monetary easing. March job reports show that hiring is slowly cooling down and stabilizing. Metals Developments/News China is the world's largest steel producer, but it still imports a significant amount of steel from other countries. In 2021, China imported over 40 million tonnes of steel, primarily from Japan, South Korea, and Russia. So what does China do with all this imported steel? Firstly, it is important to note that China's demand for steel is constantly increasing due to the country's ongoing construction boom, infrastructure development, and growing manufacturing sector. Therefore, a significant portion of the imported steel is used to meet this increasing demand. In addition to meeting domestic...

 Weekly Update: April 3rd, 2023 Trading Portfolio : (It is a link to Google Sheets) General Major News/Economic Developments Job openings fell below 10 million for the first time in 2 years - signs point towards easing of worker demand from employers 1/3 of China's newly constructed housing options went unsold in 2022 Metals Developments/News Gold My prediction last week held up for a short period of time. Gold has busted through the 2000 level with strength and it seems like it will hold here. Weaker-than-expected US economic data is the main catalyst for this Gold move. As job opening levels dropped to 2-year lows, US Dollar rates also fell to lows. With a 40% chance of .25% rate hikes and a 60% chance of no change, there are mostly clear skies for gold above. Silver Silver has been chugging higher alongside gold. We are reaching my $30 target for the year faster than expected. It will be interesting to see the reaction at the top of the channel. This is mostly uncharted territor...