Weekly Update (Week of 5/12/2025)

 

Weekly Update: May 12th, 2025

Trading Portfolio: (It is a link to Google Sheets)

Hi all! Super excited to be back doing the posts and providing my market commentary.  We are starting off with a fresh portfolio, a completely new market environment, and I think we'll see some great ideas and trades form. My focus will be around metals, energy, and agriculture in that order of priority with some index trades mixed in where appropriate.

Nothing in this blog has been generated by AI - all thoughts and analyses are my own (not financial advice).

General Major News/Economic Developments

  • Indices find new highs this week following the US-China agreement to cut tariffs
  • OPEC+ decision to continue boosting production, Saudi trade volumes remain high

Metals

Developments/News

Gold





Gold is sitting on a confluence of signals. 1st, we have the 3200 key level that was established with the rip earlier this month, 2nd, we have our 200 day moving average (green) ready to support price on the way up, and 3rd, this wedge we see made with the blue trend line. Normally, I'd be opening a position with 1 GC contract around 3242, with a stop loss on a daily close below 3200. However, due to recent macro headwinds, when we get a close over the trendline, I'll take one and move my stop loss to a daily close below the green 200-day moving average for a tight, mean-reversion trade to ease some of this bearish move.

News Updates:

Gold is trading under pressure as macroeconomic sentiment is shifting away from recession fears. Risk appetite has grown in response to easing trade tensions between the US - China and stronger than expected economic data. We are seeing a drop in the gold-silver ratio to 98:1 (a rotation out of defensive trades). The bouncing dollar after the last few weeks of dropping is also putting downward pressure on gold, with a surge in risky assets, lowering the "safe-haven" appeal of gold.


Silver



From a technical perspective, silver hasn't seen nearly the same bearishness as gold, sitting neatly above both the 100- and 200-day moving averages. The gray box represents the accumulation/distribution area before gearing up for a longer-term move. This one is definitely on high watch for a breakout in either direction when the macro story lines up.

News Updates:

While, from a macroeconomic perspective, Silver and Gold face a lot of the same headwinds and tailwinds, Silver's interesting use case in the rising demand and popularity for solar and EVs have analysts at UBS issuing a bullish call. The combined safe-haven and industrial use case status positions silver as the stronger long metal trade opportunity.

Copper



Copper is sitting in no man's land between key support and resistance of $4 and $5, with RSI near 50. If I had to take a trade, it would be long, but of course, you never have to - this is worth waiting for the right setup combined with the right story - the breakout over $5, if we ever get it, will be ripping.

News Updates:

I have mixed feelings about the macro story of copper. Long term fundamentals are strong and market players are showing the same sentiment: global miners Codelco and Rio Tinto are ramping up joint exploration efforts in Chile. Improvements like electrification, grid upgrades, and EVs are fueling the ever growing need for copper. Strangely, overseas, Shanghai copper prices recently dipped as traders continue to control their optimism and remain in a slightly cautious stance. This sets the story for a clean breakout once macro environment clarity improves. Let's see.

Agriculture

Developments/News

Coffee



Zoomed out: Coffee prices are trading a whole lot higher since I last posted about them. Definitely saw the difference at the coffee shop. Prices went sideways for a lot of 2025.


Zooming in closer, price seems to have found a base support level marked in purple. Prices could flag a bit longer and breakout above the blue trendline. I'm going to take a long if the market closes green tomorrow with a stop loss right below the bottom of today's candle wick (366.25).

News Updates:

Coffee prices edged higher Tuesday, helped by a rally in the Brazilian real. A stronger real tends to discourage export selling, triggering short covering in both arabica and robusta futures.

Brazil’s April green coffee exports dropped 28% y/y, reinforcing supply concerns. Dry weather in key growing regions like Minas Gerais is also weighing on expectations for next year’s arabica crop

Inventories have ticked up, and production forecasts out of Brazil and Honduras suggest more supply ahead, but Volcafe still sees a global arabica deficit of 8.5M bags for 2025/26.

Wheat



 

I had this supply zone drawn from quite some time. Price definitely respected it. We are definitely in an area in which we previously had an absolute ripper of a rally and price hasn't explored this area since. But selling pressure has been persistent that I need to see a bit more stability before taking a stab long. Making lower lows in a demand zone doesn't help the bull case either.

News Updates:

Wheat futures have pulled back for a third straight session, pressured by timely rains across the U.S. grain belt. Improved soil moisture is boosting yield expectations and calming earlier supply concerns. That said, any signs of dryness returning to key growing regions could flip sentiment quickly.

Energy

Developments/News

Crude Oil (WTI)



Crude put in a few supply zones but failed to test the majority of them so far. However, we are now under long term support, with 100- and 200-day emas crossing over on a bearish signal. From a technical perspective, I like a short from somewhere around 65. My stop loss would be on a daily close above 70 and my target is to flush the 54.78 lows. Need the macro story to line up before I have a go.

News Updates:

In macro, crude prices have surged since the dollar has been weaker since the start of 2025. That, along wth new sanctions on Iranian oil, the market got a bullish nudge. OPEC+ boosting productions should help with general supply, but the sanction certainly does not. The number of active US rigs continues to fall to 3.25 year lows to about 474.

Crude Oil (Brent)



From a technical standpoint, this looks very similar to the setup under key support for WTI oil. Signs of weakness need to step up but I am still learning short here.

News Updates:

The macro story remains mostly the same as the story for WTI. 

Footnotes

Sources include Thinkorswim, Tradingview, Barchart, Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Investing.com, and Metals Daily.

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