Commodity Compass

       Weekly Update: March 27th, 2023 Trading Portfolio : (It is a link to Google Sheets) General Major News/Economic Developments Credit Suisse getting bought out by UBS for $3B The housing markets in western USA are seeing price cuts of around -12% while the east is enjoying boosts of the same amount. Eurozone Banks Cut Lending Even Before Latest Financial Turmoil Metals Developments/News Gold Gold hit that 2000 mark that we have had marked since the beginning and seems to have stalled there. Acceptance above that price seems elusive, leading me to believe a short-term pullback may be in order. The influx of gold bulls trumping the commodity alongside bitcoin gives me an extra boost in confidence in assuming this rally will stop here at least for the time being. Gold imports from Hong Kong have more than tripled on the recent price dip preceding this rally. Higher interest rates also discourage investment in non-interest-paying precious metals such as gold and sil...

      Weekly Update: March 20th, 2023 Trading Portfolio : (It is a link to Google Sheets) Apologies for the missed week, I was out of town! General Major News/Economic Developments SVB and Credit Suisse As many of you may know, Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapsed recently. The trigger for this collapse was a widespread "bank run" caused by a combination of rising interest rates, an increase in Venture capitalist cash reserves, and SVB's sale of government bonds at a loss to raise capital. This indicated to customers that their money in the bank may not be as liquid as they once thought, hence triggering many to withdraw a lot of money quickly. When SVB couldn't fulfill these needs, they failed within 48 hours of the disclosure of the sale of government bonds. Now, Credit Suisse seems to be the next bank in trouble. In fact, it reported $8 billion in losses in 2022, the biggest loss since 2008. It can be reasonably assumed that the risk CS faced in 2008 was systemic -...

      Weekly Update: February 27, 2023 Trading Portfolio : (It is a link to Google Sheets) Find a decent amount of metals information this week! General Major News/Economic Developments China soft GDP target for 2023 is about 5% with there being 3% growth in 2022 Metals Developments/News Gold The small signs of strength in price action on the 100-day moving average (green) for gold proved to be short-term support for the precious metal, up about 35 points from the local lows With numbers reported, Turkey maintained its status as the world's largest gold buyer in the month of January, clocking in 23 tonnes. It will be interesting to see how this rate changes as a result of the Turkey earthquake (2/9/23), as they announce temporary import suspensions. Turkey citizens seem to be using gold as a hedge against inflation and currency pressures, indicating distrust in their country's currency. The long term plan is to accumulate a medium sized stake in a gold short on the w...

     Weekly Update: February 27, 2023 Trading Portfolio : (It is a link to Google Sheets) General Major News/Economic Developments Russia turns to the Chinese Yuan in an effort to ditch the Dollar. The move deepens the ties between the two countries that have long been rivals for regional dominance.  US unemployment fell to a 53-year low. The economy shows strength in early 2023. Goldman struggling with the Fintech and the consumer banking side of the business. Chinese chipmakers that receive US funds banned from expanding in China for a decade. Metals Developments/News The trade I placed last week on Gold Futures ended up getting stopped out for a 3pt loss at $1840. You can track the trades from the link below the header! Gold The price action in Gold continues to show small signs of strength that seem to be getting sold into.  My long-term view on Gold still stands as the dominant idea for the commodity: Dollar value may be cooling, but with rate hike fears ov...

 The Coffee Paradox     Since the beginning of the coffee trade, the raw material and the final product have become increasingly different. The final, consumer-loved coffee is not only a drink but also an experience. Coffee shop ambiance, barista service, and fancy coffee drinks are three fundamental components alongside your cup of joe. Your final cup of coffee is the sum of the attributes from its origin and additions from the value chain actors.      Power in the coffee business comes from capturing the value-adding aspects of the trade while undermining material costs where possible. The trade is spread across 50+ developing countries and employs millions of small farmers. Unfortunately, these farmers benefit the least from the modern coffee trade.  The global value chain in coffee is as follows:     We can track it from producer to processor to wholesaler to retailer to consumer. At the lowest level, inputs include fuel, fertilizer, pes...

    Weekly Update: February 21, 2023 Hello! Not too many significant developments this week to take note of, but the technical story for oil worked out very well and there has developed a nice setup for Gold futures. Taking technical trades backed with macro stories seems to be the money maker. Tight risk and overall where you can, risk off.  I will also be looking into and reading some books on some of the soft (cocoa, coffee) in order to develop a deeper understanding. I will begin to hone in on those commodities that I understand and can work with best. Hopefully, readers can expect some commodity-specific posts throughout this week and next apart from these weekly overviews. As always, feel free to leave comments and suggestions. General Major News/Economic Developments The Earthquake in Turkey is an added wrench on top of Turkey's already fragile economy. With a heavy reliance on funding from allies, whilst battling rapid inflation, the added millions that requi...